Masana tattalin arziki sun yi hasashen cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki (headline inflation) a Najeriya na iya tunkarar kashi 19 cikin ɗari a watan Janairu 2026, duk da cewa matsin lamba na farashi a tsarin wata-zuwa-wata ya lafa. Sun danganta hakan da tasirin abin da ake kira base-year effects na kididdiga.
A cewarsu, ana kwatanta farashin na yanzu ne da matakin da ya dan sauka a watan Janairu 2025, lokacin da hauhawar farashi ta kai kashi 24.48 cikin ɗari, wanda hakan ke haifar da ɗan tura adadin sama a tsarin shekara-zuwa-shekara.
Kamfanin bincike na Meristem Research ya lura cewa hauhawar farashi ta sauka zuwa kashi 15.15 cikin ɗari a Disamban 2025 daga kashi 17.33 a Nuwamba, sakamakon saukar farashin abinci da kuma core inflation.
Rahoton ya nuna cewa hauhawar farashin abinci ta ragu zuwa kashi 10.84 cikin ɗari bisa tsarin shekara-zuwa-shekara, sakamakon wadatar kaya da rage kuɗin sufuri. Haka kuma, core inflation ta sauka zuwa kashi 18.63 cikin ɗari, sakamakon daidaiton farashin man fetur da ƙarfafar darajar naira.
Meristem ta ce, “Muna ganin daidaiton farashin man fetur zai taimaka wajen rage matsin kuɗin sufuri da makamashi a cikin core index,” tare da hasashen cewa hauhawar farashi a Janairu na iya kaiwa kashi 18.88 cikin ɗari shekara-zuwa-shekara.
Haka nan, Coronation Research ta yi hasashen kashi 19.19 cikin ɗari, tana mai danganta hakan da ƙarin buƙata bayan bukukuwa da kuma tasirin gyaran farashin man fetur a Janairu.
Kamfanin ya ce, “Duk da cewa yanayin rage hauhawar farashi na ci gaba, akwai yiwuwar ɗan tashin farashi a gajeren lokaci.”
Shi ma AIICO Capital ya yi hasashen hauhawar farashi sama da kashi 18 cikin ɗari, yana mai cewa tasirin base-year zai shafi bangaren abinci da kuma sauran kayayyaki.
Rahoton ya nuna cewa ƙarfafar naira da daidaiton farashin man fetur sun taimaka wajen rage matsin lamba na wata-zuwa-wata, amma kwatancen shekara-zuwa-shekara zai iya ɗaga adadin gaba ɗaya.
Masana sun kuma yi hasashen cewa hauhawar farashi a Fabrairu na iya ɗan ƙaruwa, sakamakon sake cika shaguna kafin watan Ramadan da kuma ci gaba da tasirin kuɗin man fetur.
Ana sa ran Kwamitin Manufofin Kuɗi na Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) zai ci gaba da tsauraran manufofi a taron da zai yi a Fabrairu, domin daidaita hasashen kasuwa da kuma ci gaba da jawo jarin masu zuba jari daga waje.
