Kasuwannin kudi na duniya sun fuskanci babbar girgiza a ranar Litinin, bayan da tsanantar rikicin da ke tsakanin United States, Israel, da Iran ya sa farashin danyen mai ya haura dala 120 a kowace ganga.
Sabuwar tsanantar rikicin ta kai hari kan muhimman kayayyakin makamashi tare da kawo tsaiko ga zirga-zirgar jiragen ruwa a Strait of Hormuz, lamarin da ya janyo fargaba a kusan dukkan manyan kasuwannin hada-hadar kudi na duniya.
Mashawarcin tattalin arziki a bankin Judo Bank, Warren Hogan, ya ce:
“Akwai yiwuwar wannan shi ne daya daga cikin mafi saurin karin farashin mai da tattalin arzikin duniya ya taba gani.”
Masu nazari sun bayyana cewa farashin Brent crude ya karu da kusan kashi 30 cikin dari a wannan wata kadai, wanda ya sa karin da aka samu tun farkon shekarar 2026 ya wuce kashi 70 cikin dari.
Wannan rikice-rikice ya haifar da abin da masana ke kira “tserewa zuwa wurin tsaro”, inda masu zuba jari suka fara kaucewa kasuwannin hannayen jari masu hadari, suna komawa kudaden da ake ganin sun fi aminci kamar dalar Amurka da kuma frank na Switzerland.
A kasuwar kayayyaki kuma, farashin mai ya yi tsalle sama da kashi 25 cikin dari, bayan da wasu kasashen Gabas ta Tsakiya suka rage yawan man da suke fitarwa.
Wannan karin farashin ya tuna wa mutane abin da ya faru a shekarar 2022, lokacin da rikice-rikicen siyasa da matsalolin samar da kayayyaki suka janyo tashin farashin kayayyaki (inflation) a duniya.
Sai dai sabuwar matsalar ta kara rikita shirin bankin Federal Reserve wajen tsara manufofin kudade.
Sabbin bayanai sun nuna cewa rahoton ayyukan yi na watan Fabrairu bai gamsar ba, inda aka samu raguwa da ayyuka 92,000, yayin da adadin marasa aikin yi ya karu zuwa kashi 4.4 cikin dari.
Babban mai nazarin kudaden waje a bankin MUFG, Lee Hardman, ya ce:
“Hadin gwiwar kasuwar aiki mai rauni a Amurka da kuma tashin farashin makamashi ya sa bankin Fed ke cikin mawuyacin hali wajen yanke shawarar manufofin kudade.”
A halin yanzu, masu zuba jari a kasuwa suna ganin yiwuwar kashi 50 cikin dari kacal cewa za a rage kudin ruwa sau biyu a shekarar 2026, saboda karin farashin makamashi na kara hadarin hauhawar farashi.
A Nigeria, inda danyen mai ke samar da mafi yawan kudaden shigar kasar daga fitar da kaya, masana sun ce karin farashin mai na iya kara kudaden gwamnati, matukar an iya shawo kan matsalar hauhawar farashi a cikin gida.
Babban Daraktan Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Muda Yusuf, ya gargadi cewa tasirin tashin farashin makamashi a duniya yana zuwa da gaggawa a cikin gida.
Ya ce:
“Farashin makamashi yana da tasiri mai yawa. Karin farashin fetur yana shafar rarraba abinci da kuma masana’antu kai tsaye. Matsin hauhawar farashi yana karuwa, kuma iyalai suna jin tasirinsa nan take.”
Yayin da duniya ke jiran sabbin bayanan hauhawar farashi, musamman CPI na watan Fabrairu da kuma PCE na watan Janairu, makomar ci gaban kasuwannin duniya na ci gaba da kasancewa cikin shakku.
A kasuwar karafa masu daraja kuma, zinariya ta kasa samun karfi duk da rikicin duniya, saboda karfin dalar Amurka.
Masana nazarin kasuwa suna sa ido kan wani muhimmin mataki na farashi, inda wasu ke gargadin cewa idan farashin zinariya ya rufe mako kasa da dala 5,000 a kowace ounce, hakan na iya jawo karin faduwar farashinta, yayin da wasu ke fatan wannan matakin zai zama kariya ga kasuwar.
